By 2030, about half or more of the purchasing power of the global economy will stem from the developing world, says the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects 2007. This annual report on the future trends in the global economy also says that by then, emerging markets will be home to an estimated 1.15 billion middle class people.
Broad-based growth in developing countries sustained over the next 25 years would significantly affect global poverty. “The number of people living on less than $1 a day could be cut in half, from 1.1 billion now to 550 million in 2030,” the World Bank's Chief Economist Francois Bourguignon says.
“We expect developing economies’s share in world trade to rise to almost 50 percent by 2030,” says Richard Newfarmer, the report's lead author. “That’s a substantial increase from where we are today at about 30 percent."
The overall optimism expressed in the report about potential gains in the global economy from growth and globalization is somewhat tempered on two topics. Africa, the report cautions, needs to institute reforms to strengthen its investment climate and needs increased aid for infrastructure, or it risks missing out on benefiting from the gowth trend. The report also starkly warns that gains could also be undermined by a failure to properly manage environmental issues at a global level.